How do I get my ex back, and Do I have a shot? Easy Ten Points?

I dated this guy for a month, and we fell hard for eachother pretty fast. Not too fast, we didnt rush anything. We had something really good, and he made me want to stay here for the first time. I've known him since I was in Middle school, and he always dates these really pretty, girly girls which i've always felt inadequate to, I always asked the question to myself, why is he with me? and eventually we got into a fight one night because i have low self esteem issues, and that drove him away, because i did it purposefully, ive done that to 2 guys now besides him. anyways, he was really upset but we both ended the realtionship, he was crying and saying he'd regret it, whereas i kept my emotions in check, but wanted to say so much more. its been two weeks and i have tried contacting him, but he has not answered, but i havent done it to the point where he's yelling at me to leave him alone. i sent him a long message telling him how sorry i was and how i wanted to get back with him and that itd be different, but he hasnt replied to that. i leave friday for a 23 day vacation and i am getting a cellphone to bring with, but i wont contact him. i have gone to my best friend for advice since she is also close with my ex, and i said "maybe itll just be best to get over him." and she goes "no, you never knoww." i was taking down stuff of his at my house and deleting songs, and she grabbed my ipod away and went no! my point is, do you think i have a shot? Should I wait for him to contact me, or move on?